April 2011 Moderate allocation

Allocation for April:
Stocks: 35%
Bonds: 65%

July moderate allocation

Nothing changed in June. Markets appear risky.

Positive factors:
None

Neutral factors:

Long term trend (within 8% of 200 day)

Market valuations

Sentiment

Negative factors:
Underlying technical strength

'Ahead of curve' investor positioning

Allocation for July:
Stocks: 15%
Bonds: 85%

July aggressive allocation

Nothing changed in June. Underlying technical strength is negative and sentiment/valuations are neutral.

Positive factors:
None

Neutral factors:

Long term trend

Market valuations

Sentiment

Negative factors:
Underlying technical strength

'Ahead of curve' investor positioning

Allocation for July:
Stocks: 25%
Bonds: 75%

June aggressive allocation

To my surprise, many indicators are stuck in the middle and smart money is staying away from being allocated to stocks aggressively. This is the lowest stock allocation reading so far. High VIX seems to be throwing a lot of smart money investors to the sidelines. Many intermediate term breadth indicators have deteriorated in the month of May.

Positive factors:
None

Neutral factors:

Long term trend

Market valuations

Sentiment

Negative factors:
Underlying technical strength

'Ahead of curve' investor positioning

Allocation for June:
Stocks: 25%
Bonds: 75%

June moderate allocation

To my surprise, many indicators are stuck in the middle and smart money is staying away from being allocated to stocks aggressively. This is the lowest stock allocation reading so far. High VIX seems to be throwing a lot of smart money investors to the sidelines. Many intermediate term breadth indicators have deteriorated in the month of May.

Positive factors:
None

Neutral factors:

Long term trend (within stone throwing distance of 200 day)

Market valuations

Sentiment

Negative factors:
Underlying technical strength

'Ahead of curve' investor positioning

Allocation for June:
Stocks: 15%
Bonds: 85%

May aggressive allocation

Positive factors:
Long term trend

Neutral factors:

Underlying technical strength

Negative factors:
Market valuations
Sentiment
'Ahead of curve' investor positioning

Allocation for May:
Stocks: 35%
Bonds: 65%

May moderate allocation

Positive factors:
Long term trend

Neutral factors:

Underlying technical strength

Negative factors:
Market valuations
Sentiment
'Ahead of curve' investor positioning

Allocation for May:
Stocks: 20%
Bonds: 80%